Monday, July 15, 2013

iPhone Estimates Range From 23 To 32 Million

Fortune reporter Philip Elmer-DeWitt compiles forecasts on Apple from sell-side and independent analysts. For the June quarter the 45 analysts (28 Wall Street professionals and 17 Independents) have a range of 23 million to 32 million with an average of 27.2 million vs. my projection of 26.4 million. Note that my family and I own Apple shares.


My estimate of 26.4 million iPhones would be a year over year increase of 1% (the Wall Street analysts projection of 26.7 million would be a 3% increase). I am expecting that channel inventory will decrease by 400,000 in this years June quarter vs. a 300,000 decline last year. When these adjustments are taken into account the year over year increase in unit shipments changes slightly to 2%.


The quarter over quarter decline from 37.4 million would be 26% vs. last years decline of 19% (both are adjusted for channel inventory impacts). There should be a greater decline this year since in 2012 China Telecom launched in March, which means some of its early sales would have occurred in the June 2012 quarter.



Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-DeWitt


There have been a number of announcements from other smartphone vendors that are probably negative for Apple (market becoming saturated, especially in developed countries) but at least indicate that another company hasn't delivered a market share disruptive device.


Samsung's pre-announcement was slightly less than what was expected so it doesn't appear that the Galaxy S4 has caught on wildly after its initial shipments HTC announced that its second quarter profit will probably decline 83% from a year ago. It does not seem that the HTC One is gaining significant traction Blackberry announced disappointing results for its recently launched Q10 and Z10 smartphones

The bulk of the Wall Street and independent analyst projections are between 26 and 29.02 million (33 of the 45 analysts). I am expecting that the iPhones average selling price (ASP) will continue to drop from $624 a year ago and $613 last quarter to $590 due to strength in the iPhone 4 and 4S models in developing countries where Apple is doing aggressive promotions.


I am estimating iPhones to generate $15.6 billion in revenue which is 43% of my $36 billion in total revenue. The 43% of total revenue would be the lowest since the September 2011 quarter. Total revenue guidance is $33.5 to $35.5 billion for the June quarter.



Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-DeWitt


Follow me on Twitter @sandhillinsight or on Forbes.com


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