Fortune reporter Philip Elmer-Dewitt compiles Apple forecasts from sell-side and independent analysts. For the June quarter the 48 analysts (29 Wall Street professionals and 19 Independents) have a range of 13.5 million to 22 million with an average of 18.1 million vs. my projection of 20 million (11 th highest of the 48). Note that my family and I own Apple shares.
My estimate of 20 million iPads would be a year over year increase of 17% (the Wall Street analysts projection of 17.8 million would be a 4% increase). I am expecting that channel inventory will remain flat in this years June quarter vs. a 1.2 million increase last year.
Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-Dewitt
When you adjust for last years channel increase of 1.2 million units and last quarters increase of 1.4 million iPads my 20 million projection would be a 26% increase year over year and 11% increase quarter over quarter.
When you compare the last three quarters year over year growth rates (again adjusted for inventory changes) of 43%, 46% and 49% respectively my 20 million unit projection with a 26% year over year growth rate appears reasonable.
On a quarter-to-quarter analysis, after adjusting for channel inventory, 2011 iPad units increased from 5.1 million in the March quarter to 9 million in the June quarter, an increase of 78%. In 2012 iPad units increased from 12.1 million to 15.8 million, an increase of 31% quarter over quarter. In the March 2013 quarter Apple sold 18.1 million iPads. For it to reach 20 million in the June quarter it will need an 11% increase.
It is true that the June 2011 and 2012 quarters were helped by new iPads being launched in the March quarter. However, since there haven't been any other tablets gaining significant traction ( Microsoft announced a $900 million write-down in its Surface RT tablet inventory and BlackBerry seems to be abandoning its tablets) along with continued corporate adoption helping to smooth some of the spikes created by new models I believe an 11% quarter-to-quarter growth rate is attainable.
Source: Fortune magazine Philip Elmer-Dewitt
Follow me on Twitter @sandhillinsight or on Forbes.com
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